STRC - A methodology to identify and assess transport infrastructure development considering land-use uncertainty

Abstract

This paper presents a methodology to identify and assess transport infrastructure development considering land-use uncertainty, emphasizing the challenges posed by divergent stakeholder views, uncertain assumptions, and the time-consuming consensus-building process. In this paper, the methodology is explained through an example of an algorithm designed to generate potential new highway access points, the associated land use scenarios, and their effects on mobility demand. The mobility demand is dependent on the land use scenario and is allocated to the highway infrastructure using travel-time based Voronoi polygons. The demand defined in an origin-destination matrix is allocated to the highway via its access points, i.e., the Voronoi polygon centroids and can be dynamically reallocated dependent on the proposed development. The generated infrastructure development is then assessed using factors like construction costs, travel time delay, noise externalities, and environmental emissions. This methodology enables planners to prioritize the generated developments at an early stage in the planning process both effectively and efficiently. As a consequence, the planner may allocate resources and facilitate transparent communication to stakeholders in early planning stages. The methodology can be used to help accelerate the early stages of the planning process, reducing iterations and efforts required for consensus among diverse stakeholders. It is expected to enhance the effectiveness and efficiency of transport infrastructure planning in anticipation of evolving societal needs.